[CC]

[Chief Joseph]

The forecast for next Sat is 81 degrees in Verlot, I was hoping for a milder spring and summer, hopefully this is not an indicator of things to come. I had better order and AC before the shortage begins. I also need to get a large water tank, since my well has gone dry the last 2 years.

[Cyclopath]

[Ski]

funny. not sure why ANY of you would pay any attention to ANY of the "experts" - doesn't matter if it's Cliff Mass (about whom I know nothing) or Rich Mariott or Steve Poole or Willard Scott - weather forecasts have always been a matter of guesswork. not until World War II did the Norwegians figure out how to "read" high altitude photo images and make sense of them. weather forecasting is like western medicine: they're still "practicing". if you have money, do not wager it on Cliff Mass.

[kvpair]

Ski: So, just checking. Are you saying that weather forecasting using atmospheric modeling cannot predict accurately?

[Ski]

I'm going to assume that's a rhetorical question. Thanks.

[Gil]

Still arguing against prudent preparation for possible drought? I don't get why so many people are against it. This whole thread makes me thankful for the "ignore" function. Some new additions from this.

[Ski]

^ you think eight pages arguing about the accuracy of Cliff Mass' blog posts isn't enough?

[Logbear]

[Logbear]

This looks like rain to me. https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wrfd2_ti_ww_pcp72+///3 No, I'm not in "drought denial". I just think this forecasting tool says that it going to rain over an inch at my place by Tuesday afternoon. Am I wrong? And yes, I understand that one rainstorm doesn't erase a drought. But where I live everything is absolutely normal. My little pond still has water in it, and it's usually dry. I don't know if Cliff Mass uses this tool or not.

[Randito]

The "dought forecast" is intended primarily for agricultural usage. It's a prediction on how much water will be available for irrigation over the summer -- so that farmers can make adjustments to more wisely use available water. Rain that falls now and through early summer doesn't change the agricultural/irrigation prospects very much. I do hope that a cool wet spring will help for stall the start of fire season this year.

[Ski]

[Logbear]

Which one of these tools is the one to use? I'm asking because I don't know. These maps don't seem to agree on the drought conditions in Washington. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.png

[thunderhead]

Both do different things. The first is observed conditions, what is there now, or at least very recently. The second is a forecast, a prediction of future conditions which may or may not come true. Also the two groups may have slightly different definitions of drought and almost certainly have different color schemes for their maps.

[Stefan-K]

doesn't look like much drought relief for the foreseeable future...

80 degree weather for mid May and little to no precip. Rainier altitude freezing levels or higher next week. Isotherm climax avy weather. Not good.